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Thursday, December 21, 2006

Global Warming and Frankenstein

There is an interesting article about a recent meeting of the American Geophysical Union – a group of scientists most closely involved with the study of climate and the entire issue of “global warming.”

It’s interesting because it brings together two apparently dissimilar issue, the issue of global warming and the novel by Mary Shelly about the creation of Victor Frankenstein’s monster.

Recall that in Shelly’s novel, Frankenstein was a scientist who wished to create a living creature from dead tissue. When he animates his creation, he is repulsed and rejects his creation.

It now appears that climate scientists are, like Frankenstein, beginning to have doubts about the creature they have created. It's partly a confession:

We tried for years – decades – to get them to listen to us about climate change. To do that we had to ramp up our rhetoric. We had to figure out ways to tone down our natural skepticism (we are scientists, after all) in order to put on a united face. We knew it would mean pushing the science harder than it should be. We knew it would mean allowing the boundary-pushers on the "it's happening" side free reign while stifling the boundary-pushers on the other side. But knowing the science, we knew the stakes to humanity were high and that the opposition to the truth would be fierce, so we knew we had to dig in. But now they are listening. Now they do believe us. Now they say they're ready to take action. And now we're wondering if we didn't create a monster. We're wondering if they realize how uncertain our projections of future climate are. We wonder if we've oversold the science. We're wondering what happened to our community, that individuals caveat even the most minor questionings of barely-proven climate change evidence, lest they be tagged as "skeptics." We're wondering if we've let our alarm at the problem trickle to the public sphere, missing all the caveats in translation that we have internalized. And we're wondering if we’ve let some of our scientists take the science too far, promise too much knowledge, and promote more certainty in ourselves than is warranted.

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