Sunday, July 19, 2015
Are Republicans going the way of the Whigs?
Sometimes the Ruling Class does not understand that the ground under their feet is no longer solid. That they are standing on quicksand and can disappear. The issue of illegal immigrants is not going to go away. The accepted wisdom that illegal immigrants need to be absorbed into the country is not accepted by most people. It's only accepted by the ruling Republicans who assume that illegals will become citizens and they need at least some of their votes to remain in office. But suppose the basic assumption is wrong, just as the assumption that slavery should be controlled rather than eradicated is wrong?
The Whigs collapsed and died in the space of a single election.Whig Party (United States) – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The party was ultimately destroyed by the question of whether to allow the expansion of slavery to the territories. With deep fissures in the party on this question, the anti-slavery faction prevented the nomination for a full-term of its own incumbent, President Fillmore, in the 1852 presidential election; instead, the party nominated General Winfield Scott. Most Whig party leaders eventually quit politics (as Abraham Lincoln did temporarily) or changed parties. The northern voter base mostly joined the new Republican Party. By the 1856 presidential election, the party was defunct.
How will the history of the Republican party in the 2016 election read in the Wikipedia of tomorrow?Here’s a possibility:The Republican Party was ultimately destroyed by the question of whether to leave the borders unsecured and mandate eventual citizenship for thirty million illegal aliens. With deep fissures in the party on this question, the anti-amnesty faction prevented the nomination of the leadership’s standard-bearer, Jeb Bush, in the 2016 presidential election; instead, the party nominated Donald Trump. Most Republican party leaders eventually quit politics or changed parties. The party’s voter base mostly joined the new American Party. By the 2020 presidential election, the GOP was defunct.Trump’s candidacy has the potential to be one of those Black Swan events that reshapes huge parts of the American political, social, and cultural landscape. Will he do so? Who knows?But he’s raising a ruckus, and it is a ruckus that badly needs to be raised.