First Do No Harm

They called it “Bleeding” and at one time, draining your blood was considered a cure for many illnesses.  George Washington was one of its most famous victims.  Washington fell ill after supervising farm activity on December 12, 1799.  He asked to be bled by his overseer.  Three physicians were called in and each one drew more blood until he lost 40% of his blood before he died.

In Washington’s time, bloodletting was widely considered a treatment for many ailments based on the ancient Greek idea that the human body was composed of four humors, one of which was blood.  Removing blood was supposed to "rectify the humors."

In retrospect, that loss of blood contributed to Washington’s death.  “First do no harm” is an old medical doctrine.  We should be reasonably sure that the cure we prescribe in not worse than the disease.  

Which brings us to the “cure” of shutting down the economy to stop the spread of a virus.   There is no question that people who have a communicable disease should stay away from people who are well.   However, forcing everyone to stay home, sick or well, as a way of coping with a virus has serious side effects.  These include loss of income, psychological problems including rising suicide levels, failure to treat other illnesses, drug and alcohol abuse and material shortages.  

The American Institute for Economic Research cited a study which predicted what the effects of a shutdown:

This article forecasted more than 100,000 excess deaths due to drug overdoses, suicide, alcoholism, homicide, and untreated depression – all a result not of the virus but of policies of mandatory human separation, economic downturn, business and school closures, closed medical services, and general depression that comes with a loss of freedom and choice.

The prediction has come true:

People are dying across all demographics due to the radical transformation of life itself. In addition, new research is showing that there has been a huge increase in excess deaths in elder-care homes probably due to despair and loneliness from the prevention of family visits. 

The whole pattern is extraordinary and deeply tragic. It was also entirely predictable. Instead of dealing rationally with a textbook virus, as we had done during the whole of the 20th century, we embarked on a new social/political experiment in lockdowns. We attempted to intimidate a virus with PhDs and political power, hoping that it would shrivel and die, and in so doing dramatically disabled human freedom and social functioning. What do we have to show for it? Massive carnage, and a virus that is still with us.

Remember the mantra in March of 2020 that we had to “flatten the curve?”  Nobody says that any more because hospitals are not facing a surge of patients with Covid-19.  But policy makers seem unwilling to admit their errors and some want us to repeat the failed experiment.  

We have become smarter about living with a virus and have begun to realize that shutting the economy down is not the answer to managing this pandemic.  Unlike George Washington’s physicians, we are not going to take more and more blood until the patient dies.