Richard Fernandez: The low chance of war with Iran

The war's no longer hidden and WWIII is not going to come because we killed the head snake.

With everyone wondering if Iran and the US will go to war it's pertinent to understand both nations are already in an undeclared conflict going back more than 40 years. "And often, it’s been a war that our political and intelligence elites have denied exists."

It began on November 4, 1979, when “radicals” loyal to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran ... On April 18, 1983, a suicide bomber drove a truck full of explosives into the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon ... Iran has also targeted U.S. soldiers on the battlefield, killing more than 1,000 U.S. troops with specialized improvised explosive devices in Iraq, placing a bounty on U.S. service personnel in Afghanistan, and most recently targeting U.S. forces in Syria.

The obvious question is why this conflict, which has claimed thousands of lives has remained in a state of limbo and why elites are at pains to deny it exists. One possible answer is that the combatants prefer it that way. Iran for its part is heavily engaged in proxy war with Saudi Arabia in far flung theaters including Syria, Yemen, Iraq, the Bahrain uprising, Lebanon and even Afghanistan. It can scarcely afford the additional cost of open conflict with the United States if it is to escape over-extension. It is in Iran's interest to keep its war with America undeclared so that it can pick and choose when to engage.

For analogous but different reasons Washington preferred it secret too. Undeclared conflicts are the only way to fight "forever wars" where the object is not the destruction of the enemy but rather its management and containment in such a way that the global public and markets don't notice.....

Hidden wars allows Western politicians to avoid World War 2 type political choices that might lead to binary outcomes like victory or defeat in favor of a chronic conflict flying just beneath the media radar. That way deal-making can continue with minor interruptions. From this perspective the really disruptive effect of Donald Trump's decision to kill Iranian IGRC chief Qassim Suleimani was not the kinetic act itself but in forcing what past administrations and Iran wanted hidden out into the open.

All of a sudden the issue of Iran can no longer be locked up in a dark closet. To the question: "What will the IRGC do now that it has not already done? Kidnap foreigners? Strike military bases? Sack embassies? Assassination attempts? Target GCC oil interests? Send out militias to crackdown on adversaries?" the answer is simple. They have to own up to it.....

Whether intentional or not Trump's actions have eliminated secret war with Iran as an alternative. "President Trump has warned the US is 'targeting' 52 Iranian sites and will strike 'very fast and very hard' if Tehran attacks Americans or US assets." If Iran tries to dive into the murky waters of deniable conflict again the Donald has 52 depth charges to bring it to the surface. This puts enormous pressure on Tehran to either open another front against America or negotiate a ceasefire in its secret war against the US. As Shadi Hamid of the Atlantic put it, nobody really wants open war but Iran can stand it least of all.