Home Sales up 100% in California

From Dr. Mark Perry via the Gartman letter:

Home sales increased 100.8% in January in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 40.5%, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS (CAR)reported today.

“Statewide sales in January edged past the 600,000 threshold for the first time since October 2005,” said CAR President James Liptak. “The strength in California home sales in recent months signifies that the market is gradually working its way through the large numbers of distressed sales that have followed in the wake of the troubled mortgage problem.

With favorable home prices and historically low mortgage rates, affordability in the California housing market is now at its highest since the start of the decade.”

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 624,940 in January at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, an increase of 100.8% from the revised 311,160 sales pace recorded in January 2008.

The Unsold Inventory Index was 6.7 months in January, compared with16.6 months in January 2008 (a reductionof almost 10 months), and the median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 49.9 days in January 2009, compared with 70.8 days in January 2008 (almost a 21 day reduction).

Bottom Line: The way the media reports it, you would think we were years away from a solid recovery in the real estate market, especially in states like California, when some of the housing data suggest otherwise. The 40.5% fall in California home prices is helping to stimulate home sales there, as the Law of Demand would predict. Overall sales volume has increased in California by 20.5%, from $1.32 billion a year ago to $1.58 billion in January this year, the Inventory Index has decreased by almost 10 months, and the median number of day to sell a home decreased by almost 21 days. In other words, market forces are working in the California real estate market.