The Recession's Over?

As a psychologist would say: "How does that make you feel?"

The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) may have declared the recession over but there are more than a few doubts and questions. Consumer sentiment is not only 24 points below the level consistent with a growing economy, but it’s 7 points below levels normally seen in the middle of a recession.

If the NBER is right, this has been the longest recession – 18 months - since the Great Depression which lasted 43 months (August 1929 to March 1933).

Meanwhile 14.9 million workers are unemployed. And a shocking 41.2 million American receive food stamps. And let’s not forget about the ailing small business sector and a housing industry that’s flat on the canvas.

It may be possible for academic economists to say the recession ended last year, but the Federal Reserve is much less certain, stating today that it’s

“..prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery.”

That’s Fed Speak for “this economy’s in trouble but we don’t know what to do."