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Thursday, June 14, 2012

The economy would be in full recovery mode if Obama had just left things alone.


Economies recover.  Our economy has had recessions, depressions and panics over the life of the country.  It has survived a revolution, civil war and two world wars and come back stronger than ever.  But we have always had leaders that believed in freedom, free enterprise and allowing people to figure out for themselves how to get out of the hole they are in.  Past leaders have been supportive of private enterprise.

This president is different. Edward P. Lazear uses a baseball analogy of the way that the Obama administration is explaining its failure.  

Picture this scenario in baseball: Pitcher Smith replaces a starting pitcher in the fourth inning, when his team is down by three runs. The team scores two runs in the next inning, almost tying the score. But in the sixth inning, Smith gives up five runs, putting his team hopelessly behind. After the loss, Smith tells reporters that he did not pitch well in the sixth inning because the team was behind before he entered the game in the fourth.
Claiming that the U.S. economy has slowed during the past couple of years because it was in poor shape when a new president took office in January 2009 makes no more sense than Smith's explanation of his disastrous sixth inning. Just as poor pitching by Smith doomed the home team, ineffective and counterproductive policies of the past three years have put us back on the brink of recession.

The economy began its recovered as predicted in 2009, but then something happened. 

Starting in July 2010, the economy slowed and we sank to rates that are below our 30-year average of 3.1% and are too low to propel a proper recovery. Worse, during the most recent five quarters, the growth rate has averaged a dismal 1.6%.
Like the pitcher who has a terrible inning after his team starts to make a comeback, our economy has taken a new turn downward that began in summer 2010. Job growth has stalled. Each month of the last four has seen jobs added at rates that are lower than those in the preceding month. One or two months of data are never enough to conclude that something is wrong, but we are now seeing a trend. Despite President Obama's recent comment (later retracted) that "the private sector is doing fine," there is plenty of slowdown in the private sector.  …
The logical conclusion is that what has happened since 2010 is a result of more recent policies, not ancient ones. In recent years, the strategy has been to emphasize short-run gimmicks and social goals rather than policies that could have produced economic growth and jobs. That strategy has been augmented by negative signals—such as blaming the rich and threatening new taxes and regulation—for investors and job creators.

The fact is that while Obama inherited a recession when he took office in early 2009, he has aborted the recovery with policies almost willfully designed to send the economy into another recession.  Whether from ignorance or design, this is the Obama economy and the Obama recession.  We can’t afford another four years of this. 


1 comment:

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