Romney Gains 3 to Tie Obama in CNN's D+11 Poll

Via Breitbart

The latest CNN national poll of likely voters, which shows a 49%-49% tie between Republican challenger Mitt Romney and incumbent President Barack Obama, is either absurd, or very good news for the GOP--or both.

Romney has gained 3 points since the last time CNN ran its poll, in late September, when Obama led 50%-47%. That is good news for the Republican ticket, especially since the poll was conducted after Hurricane Sandy.

Yet there is something odd--and even ridiculous--in the poll's sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total sample of 1,010 adults polled, "41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans."

In other words, the poll is a D+11 outlier. It presents a picture of an electorate that is far more pro-Obama than it was in the historic 2008 election. That is extremely unlikely.

Moreover, the polls's crosstabs indicate that Romney is winning self-described independent voters by a giant 59%-37% margin. A 22-point lead among independents virtually guarantees victory for Romney. Yet Democrats are so heavily over-represented in the CNN poll that Romney's 22-point lead becomes a mere 49%-49% tie.

 

It's going to be a blowout, but to quote Glenn Reynolds, "Don't get cocky."

If you look at the poll's internals (p. 20)you will get even more enthusiastic about Romney's chances.  The economy is by far the biggest issue according to the people polled.  Likely voters believe the economy will get better if Romney is elected by a 43% to 34% margin.  Even among registered voters Romney beats Obama 39% to 32%.