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Sunday, December 06, 2020

Patrick Basham explains why Biden victory 'not statistically impossible, but ... statistically implausible'

 Another anomaly of the 2020 election, Basham told Levin, is the fact that Trump performed better in many key voting metrics than he did four years earlier. 

"If you look at the results, you see how Donald Trump improved his national performance over 2016 by almost 20%," he said. "No incumbent president has ever lost a reelection bid if he's increased his votes [total]. Obama went down by three and a half million votes between 2008 and 2012, but still won comfortably.

"If you look at those results, you see that Donald Trump did very well, even better than four years earlier, with the white working class. He held his own with women and suburban voters against all of most of the polling expectations, did very well with Catholics, improved his vote among Jewish voters," continued Basham, who detailed his incredulity in an article published in the American edition of the Spectator. "He had the best minority performance for a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1960, doing so well with African-Americans, and importantly with Hispanics."

In fact, Basham suggested, Trump's performance was so impressive that if anyone asked 100 observers "who were sequestered for the actual election night" and had been given "the vote breakdown by demographic group" who they thought won the election, "99, at least out of those 100 independent, well-informed observers would say, well, obviously, Trump."

To believe that Biden won you have to believe that he did much better than expected in the few cities in key states that gave him the election AND NOWHERE ELSE. 

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