Mortgage Data – The Fed (and the recovery) may be facing a strong headwind based on this morning's mortgage data. Mortgage applications fell 7.2% for the week hitting a four month low. That means mortgage apps are below where they were before the Fed began buying Treasuries and mortgage paper (in the hope of driving mortgages lower).
The patient appears not be responding to the medication.
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The Bond Market And Green Shoots – Andy Lees, UBS's sharp-eyed lad in London takes note of new growth in M3 in the U.S. Here's a bit of what he wrote this morning: On a y/y basis it is growing at about 7.5% pa, but that has been falling from 17% growth in March last year. The only time it has shown month on month growth during that period was when the Fed was dramatically expanding its balance sheet at the end of last year. Since then money supply growth has slowed until now. The fact that it is now growing whilst the Fed’s own balance sheet is static, would suggest that the banks are starting to expand credit once again. That may add to inflationary concerns. Inflation only comes when money acquires velocity.
If you drop a newly printed trillion dollars on Bob's lawn and he just takes it in the house – that's not inflationary. Only when he spends it or lends it, can it become inflationary. If bank credit is growing and flowing, then money is beginning to acquire velocity. The early warning flags may be fluttering.
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Thursday, June 11, 2009
The patient appears not be responding to the medication.
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