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Thursday, September 27, 2012

National Journal polling reporter Steven Shepard has no problem with 99% Democrat sampling being accurate

Hugh Hewitt interviews "veteran" "unbaised" reporter Steven Shepard - age 29 - and asked him if oversampling Democrats (or Republicans) would cause him to question the validity of a poll.  He answer, after lots of ducking and weaving and prodding, was that if he saw a pol that was 80-20 Democrat his first reaction would be to think that "there has been an important shift that we should be paying attention to."   To Steven Shepard, a poll like that would indicate to him that most Republicans had switched parties. 

Hugh Hewitt: But I understand. But it would not cause you concern. If it was 100% Democrats, and they said Obama was ahead, it wouldn’t cause you concern?

Steven Shepard: I would write that if in a random sample of voters in a given state, or across the country, if 99% were identifying themselves as Democrats, but the poll was adequately weighted according to race, according to gender, according to age, I would look at education, I would look at income. And if everything else checked out, I would say well, maybe there’s an important shift going on. Obviously, this is, you know, a big exaggeration.
Wow!  Just wow!   Read the whole thing.

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