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Saturday, March 28, 2015

The Obama Foreign policy. Connecting the dots.

If someone’s words do not correspond to his actions, believe his actions. I have asked for a while: “What would Obama do differently if he did not like America?” So far there’s no good answer.

Obama’s actions in this country are the subject for another essay. Let’s just say that Congress has checkmated itself. The Left is in control of academia and the communications media. The Justice department and the rest of the government apparatus is firmly in control of Obama loyalists. Races, cultures and sexes are at each other’s throats. Domestically, it’s all proceeding as planned.

But for a moment let’s see what’s happening in the rest of the world.

In Europe Obama allows free rein to a resurgent Putin who saw the fall of the Soviet Union as a tragedy and is busy rebuilding a greater Russia. The “sanctions” are eyewash, designed to mollify the American people into believing that we are actually doing something effective. Russia will not be stopped by sanctions and Putin will not be toppled by sanctions. In fact, Putin is a popular Russian leader, admired for rebuilding Russian pride after the USSR as dismantled. Hitler took the same route, energizing the German people who were beaten and dispirited after WW1, appealing to their patriotism and restoring their wounded pride. It’s an effective strategy and it works every time it’s tried.

Obama’s sanctions are a magician’s trick; a distraction to make you look “here” while the real action is going on “there.” And the “there” is the fact that Russia is slowly swallowing Ukraine which is losing a war of territorial aggression because it’s outgunned. Obama is shipping them blankets when they need weapons, knowing that Putin won’t mind. Putin understands that Obama needs to appear to do something without doing anything effective. It’s that famous flexibility that Obama promised Putin after the election.

In the Middle East the same magic trick is being played. The drone campaign is the distraction. Wars are never won from the air, even when massive air power is applied. Drone strikes are pinpricks that kill the occasional Jihadist du-jour but do nothing to change the balance of power. It’s clear that the centerpiece of the Obama’s Middle East policy is an American alignment with Iran. That is the goal of the nuclear talks. The Obama administration wants to use an agreement, any agreement, to end international sanctions on Iran. With the end of sanctions a resurgent Iranian economy armed with nukes will become the hegemon in the Middle East, controlling the flow of oil and the wealth of the region. In this scenario, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia and other former American allies will be forced to make their peace with their new rulers.

Grand plans do not always go without a hitch. In a surprise move, and without consulting with the US, the Saudis and Egypt actually took military action to counter Iranian actions aimed at taking military control of Yemen and several other small nations. That could blow up into an Arab – Persian war, something that does not appear to be part of the Obama plan for fundamentally transforming the Middle East.

What about Israel? Obama tried mightily to oust Netanyahu and replace him with someone who would take Obama’s orders. That did not work. So Israel remains a stumbling block to the Obama plan for the Middle East. 

Egypt remains another unresolved issue. Things were going so well for Obama when the Muslim Brotherhood took power, but its overthrow is causing complications. You can be sure that Obama will work to undermine the current Egyptian government, perhaps even foment a revolution. If he can get the Brotherhood back in power an alliance of Egypt and Iran is not out of the question.

Is it possible for all this to be accomplished before the next presidential election cycle? That’s unknown.  Obama is playing a dangerous game with the potential for a genuine WW3.  There is also the possibility that things will get so far out of hand that Congress will actually try to regain it's historic constitutional role. Not all Democrats in congress are blindly loyal to their leader.  But if that is avoided there is there the problem of continuing the "fundamental transformation" that Obama is working on.  We like to think that there will be another presidential election and that someone who believes in America, who likes America, will be elected. Their job will be anything but easy.  Let us pray.

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