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Saturday, April 18, 2015

What It Would Take to Prove Global Warming

A great article in The Federalist.  Read the whole thing but here are the bullet points:

  1. A clear understanding of the temperature record. Not just the last 50 years but the last 10,000 years.
  2. A full understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. Because climate is complex and the computer models are not making the right predictions.
  3. The ability to make forecasting models with a track record of accurate predictions over the very long term. The climate models are failing to predict what's actually going on.

It’s pretty clear that scientists aren’t any good yet at making global climate forecasts. Current temperatures are at or below the low range of all of the climate models. Nobody predicted the recent 17-year-long temperature plateau. And while they can come up with ad hoc explanations after the fact for why the data don’t match their models, the whole point of a forecast is to be able to get the right answer before the data comes in.

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