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Thursday, June 11, 2015

The theory that predicts nothing explains everything

Remember the global warming "pause?"  Well, since there have been dozens of explanations for the pause and none of them have been show to be right, what's a global warmer to do?

Answer: "adjust the data" and make the pause go away.

Then there's the Church of Climate Change:

I think that’s at the heart of the Global Warming cult. “Cult” is the right word at this point, since the people passionate about it have deranged themselves to the point where those outside suspect sinister things about the movement. I have liberal friends who send me thousand word e-mails filled with links and graphs claiming that any day now the tipping point will be reached and we’re doomed. They are so sure that Gaia is angry and ready to punish us, it is axiomatic.

What this means is the looming disaster is a certainty in the minds of the adherents, beyond dispute in the same way no sane person disputes gravity or the laws of motion. It is a fixed thing now and forever, like arithmetic. If the data shows that maybe Gaia is not all that angry, it is assumed to be wrong. It has to be. So they go back and refine the data and massage it so that it is “corrected” to comport with what they know must be true.

NOAA faking their data is not deception in the way in which we normally think of it. They’re simply correcting what they believe must be a mistake. Imagine measuring a stone falling to earth and the results show it falls at rates well outside standard gravity. We know objects near earth accelerate toward the earth at 9.80665 m/s. That’s axiomatic. Any measure outside that must be due to human error.

That’s what’s happening with the constant fiddling with temperature data. Everyone knows that the earth’s climate is warming. The data coming in from various instruments must fit into the the accepted model or those instruments are defective. It has to be, otherwise the very foundation of reality is in doubt. More important, the very identity of the people in the field is in doubt.

The assumption is that data disproving the belief will somehow shake them out of their faith, but it does not work like that for most people. Look at the number of people who can walk into a natural history museum and still believe in young earth creationism. Glaciers could cover North America and the AGW people will say the planet is overheating. It’s why they have started saying climate change rather than global warming. It’s not a conscious effort to deceive; they are simply adapting to dis-confirmation.

Think of it this way. If you are a climate researcher today, you not only have the pressure to produce proof of global warming, you are surrounded by colleagues who believe deeply in the issue. Even if you know the data contradicts the prevailing “consensus” on the issue, it would take herculean will to publish it and face the wrath of your friends and colleagues. When you already are inclined to agree with them, the default assumption will be to dismiss the contradictory data and “correct” it.

When the "Mother Ship" does not arrive on schedule, the believers don't leave, they wait some more.

“Trust me, Wilbur. People are very gullible. They’ll believe anything they see in print.”― E.B. White, Charlotte’s Web

1 comment:

thisishabitforming said...

The truly sad thing is that for years now children have been indoctrinated with this doctrine with no balancing questions such as what caused the advance and retreat of several ice ages without air conditioners, motor cars and industrialization. They totally believe this stuff and never ask any questions. One more reason to keep your kids from the federal indoctrination camps called public education. If that sounded bizarre and extreme, it is, but prove to me that I'm wrong. I think it was the United Negro College Fund that had the very effective ad proclaiming "a mind is a terrible thing to waste". Very true, but public schools that indoctrinate and don't teach balance, that are told they can't discipline unruly students, that believe the professionals know better how to raise your children than their parents who love them, that undermine the parent child relationship, and produce students who think they are the cream of the crop but actually can't meet an international norm in reading, math, and science but believe totally that living near a wind farm makes their air cleaner, we are in deep deep trouble.